5 Great Opportunities to Steal

5 Great Opportunities to Steal

  1. Advantage Counts 0-1, 1-2, 0-2Ā 
  2. After a Hard Foul Ball on a FB
  3. After a Bad Swing on a CB
  4. After a Pitcher Shakes Off
  5. After a Bad Pickoff Attempt

1. Advantage Counts 0-1, 1-2, 0-2

Most pitchers are taught to put hitters away with off-speed pitches when ahead in counts.
1-2 is a great count to steal, historically the count with the highest % chance of spin.
0-2 is a little more risky as some pitchers throw FBs up.


2. After a Hard Foul Ball on a FB

A pitcher is most likely to throw an off-speed pitch after a hitter fouls off a FB, especially if well struck.
If the hitter is all over the velo, be ready to run.


3. After a Bad Swing on a CB

Pitchers will often double up CBs if the hitter looked uncomfortable, or took a really bad swing at it.
One hitter's struggles can be a good baserunner's gift.


4. After a Pitcher Shakes Off

This applies more to HS players, but pitchers will often fall into patterns of shaking to off-speed.
Watch the game and note what pitch gets thrown most often after a shake. If it's 75% CBs its a worthwhile risk to go for it next time.


5. After a Bad Pickoff Attempt

If the pitcher almost throws the ball away on a pickoff attempt, he will almost never pickoff on the next pitch. His coach won't call it, & the pitcher won't do it. Bad pickoff throws are Green Lights to good runners.


FINAL THOUGHTS:

Baserunning is an imperfect science. But trying to steal on a pitch that gives you the best chance of being safe is always a good idea.

Be tactical, observe what is going on around you, & make aggressive decisions.

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By: Mike Castellani

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